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Swiss GDP: Going south |
TEST |
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Release 2023-11-14 |
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Figure: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast update. Swiss GDP y-o-y growth collapses in the third quarter, the
«KOF Surprise Indicator» shows. Dropping to -0.051 (down from -0.021, revised)
it implies a meager 0.11 percent growth of Swiss GDP y-o-y in 2023, third quarter. |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2023(1) |
1.51 |
- |
0.65 |
1.37 |
| 2023(2) |
1.39 |
- |
- |
0.48 |
| 2023(3) |
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0.78 |
- |
- |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2023(3), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: May 30, 2023, right: August 31, 2023).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2023 (2), Forecast: 2023 (3), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best nowcasting model.
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Nowcast.
Catching up in the race to the bottom, Swiss exceptionalism among its European peers has finally come to an end: at 0.1 percent year-on-year Swiss GDP growth collapses in the second quarter according to the estimate based the
«KOF Surprise Indicator». |
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Outlook.
Amidst major European economies bragging with austerity measures in times of multiple crisis Switzerland now also stands at the brink of recession. In order to avoid further downward spiral,
co-ordinated fiscal and monetary policies are key. |
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The Swiss national bank has recently paused its interest rate hikes. In the near future the SNB would be well advised to stop and even return to a more accommodating policy by considering lowering policy rates. |
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In face of now noticeable disinflation fiscal policy should also focus more strongly on supporting the business cycle and shelf excessive austerity measures. |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
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