| |
|
|
|
| |
T |
Lackluster start into 2023 |
TEST |
| |
|
Release 2023-05-17 |
|
| |
|
Figure: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Forecast
update. After a largely stronger than expected 2022 performance, the Swiss GDP has seen a rather lackluster start in early 2023, the latest reading of the «KOF Surprise Indicator» tells. Now at -0.029 (down from -0.022, revised) it points to a 1.37 percent growth of Swiss GDP y-o-y in 2023, first quarter. |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
|
|
|
|
Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
| |
fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
|
2022(3) |
3.59 |
- |
0.49 |
0.79 |
| 2022(4) |
3.57 |
- |
- |
0.78 |
| 2023(1) |
|
0.77 |
- |
- |
|
|
| |
|
Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2023(1), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: November 29, 2022, right: February 28, 2023).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2022 (4),
Forecast: 2023 (1), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
|
| |
|
|
|
«home
|
|
Nowcast.
After close to 2 percent growth over the course of 2022 the start into 2023 looks rather weak with year-on-year expansion at 1.4 percent and according to the estimation based on the «KOF Surprise Indicator». |
|
| |
|
Due to inflation now also visible in Switzerland and real incomes suffering, this weakening does not come unexpectedly. |
|
| |
|
Outlook.
Internationally, inflation now seems to have peaked and so it certainly did or will in Switzerland soon. The future of GDP growth now is largely in the hands of the Swiss National Bank and its ability and willingness to hold its fire instead of over-reacting by pushing rates up further. The second big factor is government spending which would hamper growth if cut too aggressively. |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Special feature: Artificial intelligence. The rise of chatGPT and other large language models has moved so-called artificial intelligence right in the centre of international debates. Against this backdrop my 2018 «Why AI singularity just doesn't exist. And if it does why we shouldn't care» has aged surprisingly well. Read more» |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
|
|
| |
|
*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
|
|
| |
|
|
|