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Swiss GDP: Good looking in the rear view mirror |
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Release 2023-09-02 |
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Figure: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast
update. Swiss GDP y-o-y growth remains subdued yet again in the second quarter of the current year according to the «KOF Surprise Indicator». Its latest reading of -0.022 (up from -0.030, revised) signals 1.35 percent growth of Swiss GDP y-o-y in 2023, second quarter. |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2022(4) |
3.52 |
- |
0.78 |
0.71 |
| 2023(1) |
3.58 |
- |
- |
0.65 |
| 2023(2) |
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0.76 |
- |
- |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2023(2), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: February 28, 2023, right: May 30, 2023).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2023 (1), Forecast: 2023 (2), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best nowcasting model.
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Outlook.
Any further rush to slash public spending in combination with elevated interest rate levels and mediocre economic performance in the EU do not provide much hope for an improvement any time soon. |
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In these circumstances only a view in the rear mirror offers some solace. Switzerland has so far weathered the storms of inflation and war in Ukraine rather well. A large share of administered prices and rather little economic exchange with the countries at war certainly helped achieving this feat. |
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The latest release of 2022 growth figures by the Swiss Federal Statistical office also offers a silver lining. As tradition has it the State Secretariat of Economics (SECO) with 2 percent has grossly underestimated the economic expansion in 2022, now expected to amount to 2.6 percent. The Swiss economy thus is stronger overall than was commonly thought. |
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Special feature: 1923 hyperinflations. Sargent's account of the central European hyperinflations a hundred years ago not only inspired his «fiscal theory of
the price level» but has become a cornerstone of monetary theory an policy making ever since its first publication in the early 1980ies. Its huge impact on economic thinking
stands in
stark contrast to its empirical underpinning though. In our new paper Michael Graff and I show
that the history of the 1923 hyperinflations do not in fact support Sargent's claims. Instead, abandoning Sargent's theory provides deep insights into the very nature of money
and the causes of inflation. Read more» |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
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