| |
|
|
|
| |
T |
GDP forecast based on
semantic business cycle identification |
TEST |
| |
|
Release
2020-08-20 |
|
| |
|
Figure 1:
Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
|
|
|
|
Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
| |
fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
|
2019(4) |
-0.42 |
- |
1.55 |
1.62 |
| 2020(1) |
-.22 |
- |
- |
-1.35 |
| 2020(2) |
|
0.64 |
- |
- |
|
|
| |
|
Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2020(2), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: March 3, 2020, right: June 3, 2020).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2020 (1),
Forecast: 2020 (2), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
|
| |
|
|
|
«home
|
|
Nowcast.
To nobody's surprise, this year's second quarter will not only be remembered for the prolonged shutdown of the economy and public life at large but also for its consequential, unprecedented fall in production activity. The question still remaining though is how deep the drop actually was. |
|
| |
|
The KOF surprise indicator, which has repeatedly stood the test of time, provides a first answer. In the second quarter, it crashed to -0.13 from -0.047 (2020, first quarter). To put this new value in perspective, the lowest value so far on record was -0.079 when in the second quarter of 2009 the Swiss economy seemed to be in free fall in the midst of the great financial crisis. |
|
| |
|
Outlook.
After the shutdown in the second quarter had brought down infection rates, transmission of the new Sars virus seems to be on the rise again. This unfortunate development also raises the risk of yet another forced halt of the economy. On the up side, the Swiss government has so far managed to keep the economic damage in check by carefully targeted and apparently effective stimulus. |
|
| |
|
Recent figures show that the generous government support exceeds corporate demand for financial aid resutling federal fiscal deficit estimates to amount to less than half what had been expected in Spring. This update, therefore, is consistent with the predicted rather moderate -5.1 percent decline in value added growth. |
|
| |
|
The prospects for the next couple of months hinges on two basic issues of which only the scond can be controlled. First, the recovery must not be killed in its infancy by a renewed surge in infection rates. Second, the Swiss federal government must further provide sufficient stimulus and not even think of austerity. |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Special feature: Squaring central bank indpendence, fiscal stress and CB affluency.
Swiss public finances have entered a period of serious stress with double-digit deficits building up. At the same time, Swiss National Bank's coffers remain awash with cash getting them envy looks from lawmakers and the public at large. In this note, I explain why a new strategy for dealing with central banks's profits and which involves a negative poll tax is needed in order to secure central bank independence and to meet fiscal goals (in German). Read on» |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
|
|
| |
|
*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
|
|
| |
|
|
|