| |
|
|
|
| |
T |
GDP forecast based on
semantic business cycle identification |
TEST |
| |
|
Release
2019-05-16 |
|
| |
|
Figure 1:
Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Forecast
update. Swiss growth takes another hit as the May reading of the «KOF Surprise Indicator» logs -0.05 (2018 Q4: -0.03), a level last seen in late 2009. This drop indicates that annual growth has stalled with year-on-year expansion now in negative territory at -0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019. |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
|
|
|
|
Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
| |
fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
|
2018(3) |
3.01 |
- |
2.41 |
2.43 |
| 2018(4) |
2.08 |
- |
- |
1.36 |
| 2019(1) |
|
0.44 |
- |
- |
|
|
| |
|
Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2019(1), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: November 28, 2018, right: February 28, 2019).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2018 (4),
Forecast: 2019 (1)
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
|
| |
|
|
|
«home
|
|
Outlook.
Recovered stock prices, strong pharmaceutical export figures and persistent signs of shortages on the labour market have soothed recession worries in the first couple of months of the current year. |
|
|
|
However, the latest «KOF Surprise Indicator» reading is a wake-up call and strong reminder that the hostile U.S. trade policy, over-heating real estate markets and mounting international policy risks owed to tensions in the Middle East and the looming Brexit have eventually tipped the balance in favour of a rather gloomy outlook.. |
|
| |
|
It is, therefore, time to re-iterate the call for preparing fiscal policy measures for mastering the troubled waters lying ahead. Low interest rates and investors' thirst for government bonds offer an unprecedented opportunity to fight the dawning downturn at very low costs (if any). |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Special
feature: What's knowledge in economics?
In contrast to science that offers the prospect of clear-cut
answers to precise questions, economists very often give ambigious
if not outright contradictory advice. What may look like as a
severe drawback should be embraced as a key and rewarding
challenge, this brief note argues (in German). Read on» |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
|
|
| |
|
*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
|
| |
|
|
|
| «home |
|
Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
|
|
| |
|
|
|