|
|
|
|
|
T |
GDP forecast based on
semantic business cycle identification |
TEST |
|
|
Release
2020-05-14 |
|
|
|
Figure 1:
Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
«home |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
«home |
|
Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
|
|
|
Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
|
fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
2019(3) |
0.28 |
- |
1.07 |
1.08 |
2019(4) |
0.35 |
- |
- |
1.55 |
2020(1) |
|
0.47 |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2020(1), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: November 28, 2019, right: March 3, 2020).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2019 (4),
Forecast: 2020 (1), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
|
|
|
|
|
«home |
|
Nowcast.
With Covid-19 striking in the last weeks of the first quarter, survey results already take a hit pushing the KOF Surprise Indicator down to -0.04. Accordingly, 2020q1 Swiss GDP growth estimate recede to 0.8 percent year-on-year indicating that Switzerland enters Corona recession from a rather weak starting point. |
|
|
|
Outlook.
All economic concerns other than the virus seem to have paled in recent weeks. Next to the search for an efficient re-openening strategy economists ponder the impact of government aid to the ailing economy. Indeed, Switzerland's extreme debt brake rules need to be handled with utmost care should the government support not deepen and widening the current slump against government's and parliament's best intentions. |
|
|
|
Switzerland is in a pole position for a head start into recovery thanks to public expenditure financing options other countries just do not have. Most notably, tapping into the vast unused and unnecessary equity reserves of the Swiss National Bank must be seriously considered. |
|
|
|
|
|
«home |
|
Special feature: Federal budget in Switzerland
Public opinion in Switzerland has it that repeated surpluses in the Federal budget are the results of considerate and modest budgeting in line with the famed Swiss debt brake. The truth is more prosaic. The lion's share of surpluses is owed to systematic business cycle forecasting errors. (in German). Read on» |
|
|
|
|
|
«home |
|
|
|
|
|
*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
|
|
|
|
|
«home |
|
Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
|
|
|
|
|
|