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GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification |
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Release 2021-11-17 |
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Figure 1: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast
update. After last period's strong rebound the «KOF Surprise Indicator» slides back to -0.023 in the third quarter 2021. The corresponding estimate of real GDP y-o-y growth nonetheless amounts to 2.8 percent (2021 q2: 7.2, revised). |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2021(1) |
1.41 |
- |
-0.49 |
-0.68 |
| 2021(2) |
7.23 |
- |
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7.74 |
| 2021(3) |
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0.66 |
- |
- |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2021(3), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: June 1, 2021, right: September 2, 2021).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2021 (2),
Forecast: 2021 (3), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
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Nowcast.
Switzerland's recovery from the worst of the Corona crisis has now logged its fourth consecutive quarter with positive year-on-year growth. |
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In comparison to its neighbours Swiss GDP expansion so far demonstrates a remarkable resiliance to global supply chain worries with a growth rate of real GDP of 2.8 percent compared to the third quarter last year. |
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Outlook.
In the wake of sustained bottlenecks inflation has re-surfaced in the United States, the Euro area and beyond sparking fears of stagflation like it was 1974. |
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Not least owed to ill-advised monetarist playbooks central banks also discuss monetary tapering and even interest rate hikes thus fanning exchange rate fantasies. |
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While the US Fed has already committed to some monetary tightening the ECB still sticks to its rather expansionary policy. Combined with growing inflation differentials between Switzerland and the rest of the world the Swiss Franc has accordingly gained considerably versus the Euro and slightly lost against the U.S. dollar. |
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The upward pressure on the Swiss Franc once again highlights the Swiss National Bank's very unpleasant strategic position with its choice between two evils, either a further lowering of the policy interest rate to fight the currency's strength, or inaction at the expense of additional expansion of the monetary base and asset price inflation. |
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Special feature: Historical school. On the back of the most advanced econometric methods now sailing under the flag of »causal inference« the German Historical school sneaks its way back into the industry's most prestigous journals. Seventy or so years since the Historical School's first demise have left their mark, however. Nowadays, economists are hardly able to give a useful and accurate account of historical facts. |
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Enters »Good bye Lenin«. This prominently published and widely cited article claims that East Germans where brainwashed into favouring centrally planned economy and dictatorship while their West German compatriots remained democracy- and market-oriented throughout thanks to U.S., UK and French occupation. |
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Last week's 73rd anniversary of the general strike in the U.S. and UK western sectors demanding price controls being re-established is a yet another strong reminder that no matter how sophisticated your statistical tools are a thorough knowledge of your subject under investigation remains key for doing propper research. Read more » |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
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