GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2008-11-07 |
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Sample: 2000(2)-2008(2), Forecast: 2008(3) through 2008 (4) |
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Table 1: GDP forecasts | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Sources: Own calculations, *realised GDP: seco (left: December 04 vs. : September 02, 2008, releases) Note: Forecasts obtained by combination of best nowcasting model and best forecasting model including the best nowcast for 2008q3. |
Previous update | 2008-08-15 |
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Standard error of regression* | 0.573 |
Literature: | ||
Business cycle data | 2008-08-15 (Microsoft Excel file) | |
History | 2008-08-15 release | |
2008-01-24 release | ||
2007-11-30 release | ||
First release | ||
*Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release. |
Illustration | |
Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties | |
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